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Scenario
Analysis
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Scenario Analysis simulates
how the provision of ecosystem services would change under alterative
scenarios. Such simulations can then be compared among each other and
with baseline conditions to help in decision making. We specialize in
helping clients develop data and models to conduct such simulations and
making the outputs intelligible and transparent for all stakeholders.
As an example, in analyzing the flow of ecosystem services on Maury Island, WA, we were asked to assess how these flows might change under two alternative scenarios: expansion of a large gravel mine and its associated harbor facility and buildout of the island under allowable zoning. To do the latter, for instance, we looked at the building footprint within each property parcel and compared that to the allowable footprint under current zoning. For those parcels that were under allowable zoning, we assigned new "development" equal to the allowable difference. We then summarized what the flow of ecosystem services by parcel would look like in this scenario.
Percent loss in ecosystem services by parcel predicted for buildout under allowable zoning for Maury Island
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© 2006 Spatial Informatics Group, LLC, Northern Economics Inc. and Herrera Environmental Inc. All rights reserved.
Scenario
Analysis